Complexity of crises
Complex means in this connection:
- Interconnection: everything is connected and this in a different way and with different methods. This means that each intervention in the connected system not only has an impact on the variables which one would like to influence but also on others. These are the so called side effects, the reactions and the long-distance effect with regard to the realisation of measures.
- Momentum: The system changes its condition even without an influence from outside (polymerisation). Therefore, one can not wait as long as wanted and reflect in a calm and reasoned manner. It is important not only to know about the present condition but also to realise and consider the tendencies of the development.
- Lack of transparency: The conditions of a system can not be captured entirely therefore, one has to go back to the indicators. Especially this is problematic if the critical variables – which form the system – can not be detected.
- Dead times, time delays: The effect of the measure can only be seen long time after the influence has taken place and often one doesn’t know how long afterwards. Buffer variables partly pretend a stable condition which by a sudden escalates if they collapse.
- Irreversibility: The effect of a measure is irreversible.